Looking at the race for Governor, and this is a personal view, I see two decent men as the front runners.  Ted Kulongoski, who grew up in an orphanage, served with the Marines then got a law degree and headed for Oregon.  He has been here ever since.  He has served in the state legislature, as attorney general, on the state Supreme Court bench and run unsuccessfully for a number of offices including federal senator (against Bob Packwood) and Governor (against Vic Atiyeh).  He is (as far as I know) a liberal Democrat of clean morals  and has the endorsement of Oregon's present Governor, John Kitzhaber -- also known as "Dr. No" for his frequent veto habit, and as "Governor Taxhaber" for his single solution, higher taxes, to every problem faced by the state.
 

Kulongoski reminds me of Jimmy Carter.
 

Kevin Mannix is a scrapper from New York who lived in South America and Virginia for a time.  Also an attorney, and a former asst. AG in Guam, he came to Oregon and served in the legislature, as well.  From a conservative standpoint, he has a darker side. You might call him a reformed Democrat because for many years his vote would have pleased Kitzhaber and Kulongoski. His party switch came about when he lost an Oregon AG primary to Hardy Myers in 1996, and changed over to be able to still run for office. Not exactly a move due to ideological enlightenment. Still, according to some, he actually is a horse of a different color, these days.  Certainly his public declarations about you paying quite enough taxes is a far cry from the earlier incarnation. 
 

Mannix reminds me of Harry Truman
 

Right after his primary win, I predicted that in spite of Kulongoski's double digit early lead, this one could come down to a difference of a few percentage points in the end.  Even so, In talks with some people whose names you would know, I privately called the election for Kulongoski.  I still think he's going to win, but by the narrowest of margins. The reasons have to do with a number of traditional Oregon election factors which I won't take the time to go into, here.  Mechanical stuff having to do with types of voter groups, newspaper endorsements in certain key areas, and so forth.  They were all predictable, and all but one has happened since.  That one won't jump up until the last week of the campaign.

Anyway, a couple of weeks back, the polls showed the gap closing to mid-to-high single digits, surprising nobody who has been around Oregon politics for more than a decade or two.  Election cycles are like sunspot cycles -- no two are identical, but over time you get sensitive to what shapes the storm patterns.  The latest polls we've seen indicate Kulongoski leads Mannix by a 45-41 spread.   

(UPDATE: October 23, the undecideds are in the high teens, today, so the Kulongoski/Mannix spread in the public polls should be averaging in the area of 43-38 at the moment.  [The Oregonian has it at 45-37] With the usual margin for statistical error of, say four points, that could mean Kulongoski is up nine points, it's a dead heat or Mannix is on top!  The latter speculation matches insider polls which are reporting that Mannix is ahead by 1 or 2 points!)

Two factors are involved.  Oregon's economic doldrums and the Mannix spunk. 

There is meat for the voter in the way candidates run their campaigns because that activity is an executive-style job, similar to running a government during wartime.  Kulongoski sat on his lead like a one star general that Patton is about to fire.  It has burdened Ted with a great deal of inertial rest mass.  You might fairly assume that as Governor, he would sit on the status quo, and only move when faced with impending disaster.  Mannix, in comparison, got on the bus and hit the road right away.  He hasn't stepped on the brakes, since.  This man lets the Hun hold ground.  His army knows only one command -- attack. You might fairly assume that as Governor he would hit the ground running and never look back.

It is for this reason, and the fact that if given the option of a lifelong liberal or a recently enlisted (for doubtful reasons) conservative, I will take the possible risk over the certainty.   My personal vote will be for Kevin Mannix.  Though, as I said above, it still looks like a Kulongoski win to me at this point, if the race becomes even closer at the finish than I predicted at the start  (which because of the Mannix spunk now might happen), the nearly 30,000 readers of this magazine could win the day for him.  A few hundred votes saved us from Al Gore.

If for no other reason than to get us out of this veto mess we've had with Kitzhaber, and which will surely continue if Kulongoski wins, Mannix is the choice.  Oregon needs to start moving, again.  Gridlock is not the answer.  Kevin Mannix will at the very least, allow this state to do something other than just sit here and suffer.  And, even if we don't end up with statewide socialized medicine after this election the Oregon Health Plan is becoming a monster that could double your taxes in the next four years. I just don't like a liberal at the helm when a beachfront village of unarmed taxpayers is visible two points off to port.

And, if the legislature is somehow retaken by the Democrats?  Do you really want a governor who will sign every bill they send to his desk?

I'll take Mannix.  He looks like a guy who runs the local bank.  Rather formal, a bit on the stiffish side.  More chamber of commerce than professor.  But, who knows? The guy he's standing next to has surprised a great many since his election. Mannix seems to be one of those men like Truman.  A man who doesn't shine until the battle begins -- and then turns out to be a hero.   Oregon could use one of those about now.
 
 

Larry Leonard
Editorial Director
Oregon Magazine

© 2002 Oregon Magazine  Bottom photo links to Mannix campaign website.