Oregon Magazine

A Note to Jayne Carroll's Fans

"Ted Kulongoski may be green and jolly, but he's no political giant."

It has been my pleasure to participate as a caller to the Jayne Carroll program, which may be heard most weekdays between 3:00 P.M and 6:00 P.M. in the Portland area on KUIK in Hillsboro. (1360 A.M.)

During such a call on Friday, November 08, 2002, I expressed some opinions that are also printed in this issue of Oregon Magazine, in two essays titled What Just Happened and The Media's the Message.

A small firestorm erupted.

During the rest of the program, my positions, even the words I spoke, were misrepresented. (For those of you who think I do not properly appreciate Jayne Carroll, ask her who helped her get the job at that station.) It was said that I had stated Mannix ran a bad campaign. Wrong. It was said that I agreed with Tim Hibbets that the Libertarian vote had nothing to do with the Kulongoski victory. Wrong. Hibbets is probably right, but even if he isn't (and this is the point I made on the air), it makes no difference. The key to diagnosing the Mannix effort is comparing it with the size of his opponent's effort.

A half an hour before the end of that show, I sent her the following email.

I told you, told Maninix, told the guys at Watchdog and told Larry
George that this campaign could end up in a squeaker. When you say, as you just did, "Who would have guessed?" I did, and you heard me say it.

Among all the prognosticators, I stood out, from the very first, in
saying both privately and publicly that 1) Kulongowski was going to win, and 2) it would be tight. I was right on both counts.

As to Mannix running a good campaign, I also said that in Oregon
Magazine. My exact words were he was showing spunk. I then asked my readers to support him. What I said on your show was that his campaign wasn't good enough to win, and that one of the reasons was the massive support Kulongoski got from the liberal Oregon Media.

After that, I told her that I'd learned a lesson about the difference between being a guest on a show and a caller to a show. The latter cannot defend himself. It's just too easy, too tempting to lay blame, at times.

Too many conservative talk hosts have been blaming the Libertarians for the Kulongoski victory. Kevin Mannix's campaign was, in fact, just not good enough to win under the circumstances. And that is exactly what any campaign must do -- win under the circumstances. Besides calling Libertarians anarchists, which did not endear him to that audience, Mannix failed to grasp, and attempt to deal with, the central reality of his job -- non-news junkies, normal people, usually take as gospel what their local paper tells them about the world. (The central theme of The Media's the Message. )

To the best of my knowledge, not one single Oregon daily newspaper endorsed him. If any weekly newspapers endorsed him, I am unaware of it. If any television political commentator endorsed him, I have not heard of it. As Kevin Mannix full well knows, he had the chance to get the endorsement of a statewide general interest print publication, but ignored the opportunity. It is quite possible that this one event would have taken him over the top.

To those who say the narrow miss is a sign that Mannix ran a brilliant campaign, I say, "That's one possible way to look at it."

There is another possible way to look at it.

If anyone (Jayne Carroll included) thinks that Ted Kulongoski ran a great campaign, he or she is missing some short term memory.

Kulongoski didn't even wake up from his nap until the last couple of weeks. To those who are observant and wise enough to see and recognize this simple fact, I say, "The other possible way to look at this race is that Mannix couldn't garner a win against a candidate who barely bothered to run."

So, to Jayne, who I dearly love, and to her angry listeners who are obviously reacting emotionally rather than logically, I say, "Dream on, my friends. Keep blaming the Libertarians instead of facing your loss honestly, correcting your mistakes and putting up a real scrap, next time.

To the laughing liberals out there, I say, "Conservatives are human. They have moments when they let their emotion sway their judgement, just like you. But, unlike you, they eventually calm down, face the facts, fix what's wrong, roll up their sleeves and get to work."

You have seen '84. You have seen '94. You have seen '02. They all happened at the national level. I admit that. But one day Oregon (conservative) Republicans are going to learn how to do it, as well.

Enjoy your one-term jolly green governor.

Larry Leonard
Editorial Director
Oregon Magazine

Postscript: Click here to see a photo of a life-sized statue of Ted Kulongoski.