Bush Energy Speech
             Kitzhaber on Energy Solutions

            As reported across the state, Governor John Kitzhaber, late in
            March, came up with some suggestions for filling future
            energy needs in Oregon.  At the heart of this particular
            offering may be some common sense.  We can’t tell about that,
            yet.  To put the situation in proper perspective, the three areas
            available to us are conservation, renewable generation and
            non-renewable sources like fossil fuels and nuclear. 

            The best estimates of the potential for wind and solar capacity at
            present levels of technology run in the ten percent range.  Windmills
            in the Columbia River Gorge (Florida Power is bulding a wind farm
            not far from Pendleton)  and on the coastal headlands,  retrofitting
            insulation in old housing and office structures and seasonal
            adjustment of the schedules of daily life (daylight savings time) all
            combined may contribute fifteen percent to the power grid
            requirements under the best of circumstances.  Lunatic optimists
            might assign twenty percent to this potential, although it must be
            admitted that the Helix windmills mentioned earlier (Florida
            Power)  are supposed to generate an amazing 550 megawatts,
            enough to power a half a million homes -- when the wind is
            blowing, of course. 

            And, there's the forgotten source, geothermal. 

            John Hook, of Salem, a retired geologist, in a letter to the Salem
            Statesman Journal said the following: Geothermal energy is a
            proven technology used to generate clean electric power
            around the world. Oregon’s volcanic Cascade Range has a
            huge  potential for this resource. The Oregon Department of
            Geology and Mineral Industries estimates that the potential
            could be as much as 401,760 megawatts of electricity for 30
            years, the rough equivalent of 400 Trojan nuclear plants. . 

            Geothermal usually involves deep drilling, and like hydroelectric
            and wind generation isn't "distributed power" unless you locate a
            town nearby.  Klamath Falls receives some benefit from
            geothermal sources at present.  Other than that, nothing is
            happening in the geothermal arena.  Nobody seems to know why. 
            Some say it's the politics of vested power interests, others say fear
            of the Greenies (discovering a rare bacteria a half a mile below
            ground) makes the investment risk too high.  For those of us who
            watched Mt. St. Helens go off, there is little doubt that there's a lot
            of heat below ground.  Christians, of course, have known about
            that for millennia. 

            Fuel cell technology may be the wild card in all this.  While
            primarily targeted at vehicles these days, the technology is now
            working on scales large enough to supply factories.  Companies
            that lose a fortune in a blackout are beginning to install large fuel
            cell electric-generating plants. 

            Fuel cells are often included in the class known as distributed
            power. Here's a good link about that subject. (Fuel Cells)

            In the end, reality requires additional generating capacity, and since
            just about every moving stretch of water in the Pacific NW has
            been dammed, we are perforce led to the these other answers. 

            All that is required to wipe out a program based primarily on
            renewable resources easily available at this time is a warm summer
            in California  -- particularly if their present system obtains.  That
            system, now suffering periodic rolling blackouts, is often referred to
            by the media as a failed deregulation program.  Nothing could be
            farther from the truth.  Frozen consumer prices (long the law in
            California), like New York City rent controls, have absolutely
            nothing to do with a policy of deregulation.  These policies
            represent the exact opposite of deregulation, and when added to
            the rich and varied environmental regulations in recent years
            attached to the power plant building permit process in California,
            represent the complete explanation for the fix in which our colorful
            neighbor to the south finds itself. 

            The odds that a liberal Democrat California governor, and liberal
            Democrat-controlled California legislature, will combine to deal
            with the real problem may be charitably presented as slim. 
            Perhaps Governor Kitzhaber, aware of the nature of the political
            breed that has created the California energy disaster, is placing his
            personal political survival first in line with this new offering. 
            Perhaps, to give the devil his potential due, he actually understands
            the problem.  The developing details will tell the tale.  Here’s how
            that works. 

            His ideas include proposals to fast track the process of building
            new generating facilities.  If that means making an easy path for
            those who build windmills, but maintaining process objections to
            coal, gas and nuclear installations, his effort will fail.  If by new
            generating facilities, he means improvements to existing
            hydroelectric facilities, his effort will, again, fail.  (Since he cannot
            possibly be thinking of damming any additional rivers, that leaves
            only improvement to existing hydroelectric capacity. There isn’t
            enough left to do the job.) 

            It is estimated that 57% of the cost that customers pay is due to the
            delivery infrastructure.   Westinghouse corporation has predicted
            that Distributed Generation will account for 40%  (over $80 billion)
            of all electric generating capacity world wide by 2005.  The U.S
            department of energy is forecasting Distributed Generation will
            account for 20% of the increased electric capacity in the United
            States. 

            In English, the above paragraph means big towers and transmission
            lines running across whole regions represent half the cost of your
            electric bill. "Distributed Generation," as briefly discussed earlier,
            means making the electricity in a lot of locations so the towers and
            wires don't have to be built..  This is one of the ideas Kitzhaber
            seems to be talking about.  Think of it as neighborhood power
            plants if you like.  Fuel cell technology would be perfect for this
            application since it doesn't require rivers, wind or sun.  So would
            more standard installations like the following. 

            An energy company in Goldendale, WA., plans to add 248
            megawatts of electricity to the Northwest power grid by July
            2002.  The BPA and Goldendale Energy Inc. have  agreed to
            connect the power generated by a proposed gas-fired
            combustion  turbine.   Elsewhere in Oregon, a bio-mass project
            in Polk County will use the output of 100 cows to run a
            methane-powered generator that should supply nearly seventy
            homes - about 100 kilowatts..  Tillamook could be the last place
            the lights go out on Earth. 

            Other aspects of Kitzhaber's recently announced package include
            $10 million in lottery funds to pay for conservation efforts, and
            another $10 million to help low-income families pay for power. 
            The former would likely take the form of subsidies for home or
            apartment wall and ceiling insulation in dwellings occupied by the
            poor, and the latter would probably provide direct power bill
            subsidies for those same poor.  Neither will accomplish much. 
            New housing in this part of the world reflects modern construction
            techniques.  The heating systems installed are very efficient.  The
            net energy gains by retrofittng old homes, when compared with
            population and industrial estimates related to future power needs,
            impress only those whose voter base is below the poverty line.  It
            amounts to patching a four inch hole in a boat hull with a three inch
            board and some old duct tape.  What, then, has Kitzhaber got in
            mind? 

            “The objective is to achieve about 1,000 megawatts of new
            generating capacity by this coming winter from temporary power
            plants, wind power, and conventional power plants,” Kitzhaber
            said. 

            As it stands, that sentence is virtually meaningless.  First, it doesn’t
            identify the type of power generating source that will get priority
            attention.  Second, the power goal if reached would keep Portland
            running.  1500 megawatts of additional demand originating from the
            rest of the West would cause rolling blackouts in the other
            99.99999% of Oregon. 

            We’ll take a look at Kitzhaber’s goal in the light of current
            residential technology  - the most "distributed" power generation
            type possible..  Here’s a quote from the state Dept. of Energy
            conservation. 

            Solar Electric System - A 1,000 watt solar electric system
            provides about one-quarter of the energy needed to run an
            energy efficient home, not including space heating 

            Since Kitzhaber wants an immediate power gain of 1,000
            megawatts, simple division tells us the number of thousand watt
            solar electric installations we would need to meet his goal.  1,000
            megawatts means 1000 times 1,000,000 watts.  At 1,000 watts
            per residence installation, that means one million homes must be
            fitted with solar panel systems before next winter.  Since the
            average family size is somewhere in the neighborhood of three or
            four people, then using the recent census figures we can determine
            that if every home in the state was fitted with a 1,000 watt solar
            energy panel system by next November, we would fail to meet Mr.
            Kitzhaber’s goal. 

            This system, by the way, would not contribute to space or water
            heating.  It would just light lamps, run your TV and operate your
            toaster.  Here are some official state cost estimates. 

            Solar Electric System    $5,000 - $20,000 
            Solar Water Heater        $2,000 - $4,000 
            Solar Pool Heater          $1,000 - $3,000 
            Solar Space Heating     $1,000 - $10,000 

            So, the total solar system, even if you don’t have a swimming pool,
            would cost you about $8,000.  The solar energy panels required to
            meet Mr. Kitzhaber’s basic energy goal, may be computed as
            $5,000 times 1,000,000 homes, or $5,000,000,000 dollars. 

            Five billion dollars, and that’s the low estimate.  Twenty billion is
            the high estimate. 

            Here’s a quote from the Salem Statesman Journal of March 29th. 

            Over the next few years, Oregon needs another 3,000
            megawatts worth of power supplies, Kitzhaber added.

            Done via Green renewable sources (and the only one available to
            the vast majority of Oregonians is the solar panel method described
            above) this additional goal would require an additional cost that
            would total between fifteen billion dollars (low estimate) and sixty
            billion dollars (high estimate).  These are official state figures.
 

            Here is an energy generation comparison.  The subject is
            Bonneville Dam. 

            First Powerhouse Capacity: 
                 Nameplate capacity: 2 @ 43 MW, 8 @ 54 MW, 518 MW
            total 

            Second Powerhouse Capacity: 
                 Nameplate capacity: 8 @ 66.5 MW, 532 MW total 

            Thus, Bonneville Dam, running normally, provides 1,050 MW of
            power. 

            Mr. Kitzhaber’s goal, therefore, will require the equivalent of four
            Bonneville Dams, or four times the number of solar panel
            installations as there are residential roofs in the state.  (I am here
            assuming that the power generation measurements utilize the same
            time baselines.  Call it instantaneous megawattage.) 

            The normal output of the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant in 
            California is, if I am reading the numbers correctly,  almost identical
            to Bonneville Dam. 

            As of 1999, there were 434 nuclear power plants operating around
            the world.  Four Trojans (the name of Oregon’s former nuclear
            facility on the lower Columbia River) about the size of Diablo
            would meet the governor’s needs, nicely.  The Greenies would
            have a fit. 

            So, using Mr. Kitzhaber’s own figures, along with those provided
            by one of his own state energy agencies, then factoring in standard
            estimates of the savings available from conservation due to
            retrofitting old buildings, the problems associated with wind and
            geothermal and the certain reaction of elements of the
            environmental movement to nuclear power, we are left with the
           following reality. 

            Excluding the possibility of fuel cell technology, all that’s left is fossil
            fuel plants like the Goldendale gas operation mentioned up above.
            If we are not to be left sitting in the dark, we will have to build
            generating facilities that utilize coal, oil or natural gas. 

            The question is, are these a primary source in Kitzhaber’s mind? 
            Or is his proposal just so much political hot air?  (LL) 

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