"The last thing the Democrats will do is blame themselves for this election." -- Rush Limbaugh, the day after the 2002 general election.

My cabin is about 20 miles west of Portland, on the banks of the East Fork of Dairy Creek.  I was listening to a late Tuesday evening local radio broadcast hosted by a well known and well connected conservative political operative and Salem lobbyist.  I was struck by the effusive joy with which he greeted the numbers in the race for Oregon governor, and several legislative contests.  He considered these mid-evening numbers indicative of a possible winning surge for Oregon conservatism.  I attempted to call and caution him about this, but was put on hold, and then later told he wouldn't have time to talk to me.  He had too many exhuberant conservatives to celebrate these great portents with, it seems. 

The problem was that the Mannix numbers he was celebrating did not include half of the count from Multnomah County.  (They are, in fact, not yet in as I write this.  They will, however, make Ted Kulongoski our governor.  For what it's worth, nothing would make me happier than to discover this analysis is wrong.)

You have to cut these young, inexperienced lads a little slack, but still, one expects more from highly-placed Republican Party strategists, operatives and commentators.  Half the population of Oregon lives in the Portland Area, and Multnomah County contains a great many of that number.  In fact, it contains more voters than a passle of the other 35 Oregon counties combined -- and, Multnomah County habitually votes liberal.  (It was late returns from Multnomah County that took the state from Bush and gave it to Gore in the last presidential election.  "Experts" should have some knowledge of at least very recent history.)

Kulongoski's wins were coming from 8 counties, Mannix was winning in 26 counties.  The two men were in a virtual dead heat.  That tells you something about the populations of the counties won by each candidate.  With from a third to a half of the votes in Kulongoski’s counties yet to be tallied, an experienced and knowledgeable political observer who supported Mannix should have been a bit worried.  But, this commentator was bubbling over with joy and hope. 

By the dawn's early light, however, things he should have already understood entered his consciousness.  He was spinning a different tune when he returned to the air.  Saddened by the "unfortunate" way things had turned out, yet hoping against hope that the Multnomah County final tally would shock us all, he had a few in-crowd pals in to complain about the unfairness of it all.  Once more, he presented himself as the voice of political acumen which will inevitably lead conservatives to a victory next time.  For the good of all, conservatives should line up behind him and follow his lead.  It's steak yesterday and steak tomorrow, but never steak today.

His morning-after analysis of what happened was detailed.  Shot through with insider political terminology.  The confidently-delivered, fact-infused observations of the hard-bitten political realist.  The essential insider.  Listening to this, it came to me that his expertise is of the post-game commentator sort.  Unfortunately, elections are won by what you do before they're held, not after they're held.

Here’s a story I’ve told before, but which bears repeating, at this time. Years back, Hillsboro radio station, KUIK (1360 AM) carried a show hosted by Denny Smith, at one time a member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Oregon, and at that time a major figure in the Oregon Republican Party.  He had as his guest a young Republican campaign hotshot whose name I cannot recall.  After listening to Denny praise this wonderful young man, I called in and asked Mr. Smith why he was so damned enthusiastic about someone who had never won an election of any importance for his party.

There was a bit of what is known in the business as “dead air,” following my question.  When he regained himself, Smith uttered some inanity or other, and quickly moved on to discussion of other matters.

I bring this recollection up for a very specific reason: the two events described above have a common basis.  Oregon Republicans, particularly the conservative insiders and public leaders of the party are all, it seems, ignorant of a simple premise known well to those who participate in sports.  A win is determined by the score.  Doing real good, but ending up with the lower score is called a "loss."   In the case of politics, a "loss" means the other party is in charge of things.  Which laws are passed and signed, which judges are appointed, how things are done at the various government agencies, and so forth.

As of today, the Oregon Republican Party begins its 21st year of not being able to elect a governor.  The veto pen remains in the hand of the Kitzhaber-anointed clone, Kulongoski.  Not only that, but of the legislative offices clearly determined as of the time of this writing, control of the state senate has been lost, and the state house of representatives is one Democrat richer. 

And, this is what highly placed, highly influential, Republican Party operatives consider to be some sort of hopeful sign?

I will tell you what a hopeful sign is.

George Bush and the national Republican Party in an off-year election, kept control  (picked up nine seats) in the U.S. House of Representatives and retook the Senate.  At present, short of some bizarre legal trick like that attempted by Al Gore in Florida two years back, even a Daschle-dealt double cross by the Jim Jeffords Clone, Sen. Lincoln Chafee, the Rhode Island Republican who is widely suspected of harboring thoughts of party-switching, will not matter.

(There are 100 federal senate seats.  Two for each state. Things are still wavering around a bit, but as near as I can figure it, by drivetime Wednesday morning, the standing in the national senate was 51-47-1, with Republicans on top.  The Democrats, and the turncoat independent, "Jumping" Jim Jeffords, were on the bottom.  Some national media outlets had it at 51-46-1, which would mean that they're not sure of one seat I think will go to the Democrats, so take your pick. That may be settled as I write this, but you have to pick a deadline, and this is mine.)

Republicans won senate seats in  – are we ready for this? – Minnesota and South Dakota.  (Though the latter is close enough to be contested.) That’s right, they whipped the sainted Walter Mondale and the Tom Daschle candidate in Daschle’s own home state!  (There is a third piece of bad news for the Democrats.  In Louisiana, where a Democrat, Mary Landru, ran alone against three Republicans, and still didn't get over 50% of the vote, there will be a December runoff election in the bayous.  Landru will face just one of those Republicans, then, which means the Republican vote will not be split three ways.)

51-47-1, with one yet to be decided as of this writing, and virtually certain to go to the Republicans.  If Daschle can steal South Dakota back, 50-48-1.  Even with a Chafee jump, because of Dick Cheney's tie-breaking vote as President of the Senate, it's a Republican takeover.  That's the  Republican score in the national Congressional game.  (They did far better than predicted in the state governor tally, as well.) 

The final Republican score in the Oregon political game?  Governor, zero.  Legislature, net zero.  If the last contested senate seat drops into the Democrat column, net minus one.

Allow me to emphasize that.  The Republican establishment in Oregon, with the exception of a few  wins against bad initiatives (and not as many as we needed, since the minimum wage increase is winning), didn't accomplish a thing.  Nothing.  Nada.  No improvement.   Mr. Cox, the third-party candidate, will become a scapegoat for some of these "experts," as will other usual villains like the mainstream media.  Even the ones that are true are beside the point, because even when the Republican "experts" have had the chance to do something about them, they haven't.

When the day comes that Oregon conservative leaders understand the difference between a win and a loss – perhaps then the leftist Oregon dynasty will begin to lose its grip on the state. 

The TV bunch, all liberals, discussing Mannix’s future, decided that his showing would earn him honor and respect. A position of seniority in the Oregon Republican Party.  He’ll be a major figure, a wise and powerful insider who will affect the future choices of the party.  The TV bunch is correct about that.  The likely result of that will be just what the TV bunch wants – more victories for Oregon liberals.

And the same bunch of Republican in-crowd "experts" will, the next time, be reading the same internal polls, making the same candidate and campaign decisions. The TV bunch will be happy about that, as well.

They like the idea of running against  people who know how to almost win. 

Larry Leonard
Editorial Director

Postscript, November, 07, 2002:  It is obvious from what is being publicly said that some people still don't get it.  I'll boil it down.  When football teams keep losing, game after game and season after season, the coaching staff should be replaced.  Why is it that some coaches win and some lose?  It's because both types look at the same games, yet come up with different opinions about what happened.   It's like the marine biologist and the successful angler.  One knows all about fish and the other knows all about how to catch fish. 

Forget the self-serving crap about how the Libertarians cost Mannix the election.  Remember that Bush and friends went out and took Minnesota from Walter Mondale.  The keys to a Mannix win were available in Oregon, but Mannix and his Republican advisors didn't use them.

© 2002 Oregon Magazine